2026 pick board

Regular Season · Week 1 · Sep 9–14, 2026

100% AI-generated predictions · every pick graded in public · preseason games not included

Season TBD (0-0) +$0 · W1 TBD

Current · Week 1

Midweek Games

1 game

Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM EDTNBC

Lumen Field

Scheduled

Seattle Seahawks -3.5

Spread

line -3.5 · -110 · stake $100

Conf61%
away

New England Patriots

0-0

home

Seattle Seahawks

0-0

Pick
ReviewedPick and confidence unchangedAug 14, 6:48 AM EDT

Seattle lists Sam Darnold first and returns all five offensive-line starters, while New England lists Drake Maye first and travels cross-country for a Wednesday opener. Zach Charbonnet remains on PUP, limiting confidence in the home favorite.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
61%
Expected value
+16.45%
Kelly stake (¼)
$45
Risk:medium risk

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Thursday Night Football

1 game

Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM EDTPrime Video

SoFi Stadium

Scheduled

San Francisco 49ers +3.5

Spread

line +3.5 · -110 · stake $100

Conf55%
away

San Francisco 49ers

0-0

Pick
home

Los Angeles Rams

0-0

ReviewedPick and confidence unchangedAug 14, 6:48 AM EDT

Official schedules place this game in Melbourne, removing a normal Rams home advantage. San Francisco's camp injuries and Myles Garrett's knee swelling make taking the hook only a weak lean.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
55%
Expected value
+5.00%
Kelly stake (¼)
$14
Risk:medium risk
  • Small edge over market odds

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Sunday Early Afternoon

8 games

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX

Paycor Stadium

Scheduled

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5

Spread

line -3.5 · -110 · stake $100

Conf63%
away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-0

home

Cincinnati Bengals

0-0

Pick
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

Cincinnati lists Joe Burrow first, while Tampa Bay's initial chart had Tristan Wirfs and Vita Vea not practicing. Those absences are not Week 1 designations, but Cincinnati's quarterback and home-field edges justify laying the hook.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
63%
Expected value
+20.27%
Kelly stake (¼)
$56
Risk:medium risk

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX

Ford Field

Scheduled

Detroit Lions -7

Spread

line -7 · -110 · stake $100

Conf60%
away

New Orleans Saints

0-0

home

Detroit Lions

0-0

Pick
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

Jared Goff provides Detroit a quarterback edge, but Tyler Shough returns after starting nine games for New Orleans in 2025. Detroit is installing a new offense and center Michael Mays will miss significant time, so laying seven carries risk.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
60%
Expected value
+14.55%
Kelly stake (¼)
$40
Risk:medium risk

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX

Nissan Stadium

Scheduled

New York Jets +3

Spread

line +3 · -110 · stake $100

Conf54%
away

New York Jets

0-0

Pick
home

Tennessee Titans

0-0

InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

The Jets list veteran Geno Smith first, while Tennessee lists second-year Cam Ward first under new coach Robert Saleh. Both teams have new systems and active camp injuries, making the full field goal the safer value.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
54%
Expected value
+3.09%
Kelly stake (¼)
$9
Risk:high risk
  • Low confidence pick
  • Small edge over market odds

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX

Lucas Oil Stadium

Scheduled

Indianapolis Colts +3.5

Spread

line +3.5 · -110 · stake $100

Conf53%
away

Baltimore Ravens

0-0

home

Indianapolis Colts

0-0

Pick
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

Baltimore changed its head coach and both coordinators, while Nate Wiggins' knee severity remained unknown on August 11. Indianapolis has its own receiver and quarterback health concerns, so this is a low-confidence play on the hook.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
53%
Expected value
+1.18%
Kelly stake (¼)
$3
Risk:high risk
  • Low confidence pick
  • Small edge over market odds

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX

Acrisure Stadium

Scheduled

Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Spread

line -3 · -110 · stake $100

Conf62%
away

Atlanta Falcons

0-0

home

Pittsburgh Steelers

0-0

Pick
ReviewedPick and confidence unchangedAug 14, 6:48 AM EDT

Pittsburgh lists Aaron Rodgers first, while Michael Penix Jr. had not been cleared for Atlanta's 11-on-11 work. Atlanta also lost Jalon Walker for the season, making Pittsburgh preferable at the key number.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
62%
Expected value
+18.36%
Kelly stake (¼)
$50
Risk:medium risk

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX

Bank of America Stadium

Scheduled

Chicago Bears -2.5

Spread

line -2.5 · -110 · stake $100

Conf57%
away

Chicago Bears

0-0

Pick
home

Carolina Panthers

0-0

InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

Chicago lists Caleb Williams first and retains Ben Johnson, while Carolina lists Bryce Young first under Dave Canales. Coby Bryant's long-term absence and Chicago's travel keep the edge modest.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
57%
Expected value
+8.82%
Kelly stake (¼)
$24
Risk:medium risk
  • Small edge over market odds

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX

EverBank Stadium

Scheduled

Under 40.5

Total

o/u 40.5 · -110 · stake $100

Conf59%
away

Cleveland Browns

0-0

home

Jacksonville Jaguars

0-0

InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

Cleveland has not resolved its Watson-Sanders quarterback competition, while Jacksonville has several offensive-line availability concerns. Trevor Lawrence gives Jacksonville more stability, but the combined offensive uncertainty favors the listed under.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
59%
Expected value
+12.64%
Kelly stake (¼)
$35
Risk:medium risk

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX

NRG Stadium

Scheduled

Buffalo Bills -1.5

Spread

line -1.5 · -110 · stake $100

Conf59%
away

Buffalo Bills

0-0

Pick
home

Houston Texans

0-0

InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

Buffalo's August 11 camp work had Josh Allen with the first team, while Houston lists C.J. Stroud first and has returned Tank Dell to team drills. Allen at less than a field goal remains the narrowest side despite Houston's defensive strength.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
59%
Expected value
+12.64%
Kelly stake (¼)
$35
Risk:medium risk

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Sunday Late Afternoon

4 games

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDTCBS/FOX

Allegiant Stadium

Scheduled

Las Vegas Raiders -3.5

Spread

line -3.5 · -110 · stake $100

Conf60%
away

Miami Dolphins

0-0

home

Las Vegas Raiders

0-0

Pick
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

Las Vegas lists Kirk Cousins first under Klint Kubiak. Miami's chart lists Quinn Ewers while Malik Willis led its August 10 passing work, leaving the Dolphins' regular-season quarterback order unresolved.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
60%
Expected value
+14.55%
Kelly stake (¼)
$40
Risk:medium risk

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDTCBS/FOX

U.S. Bank Stadium

Scheduled

Minnesota Vikings +1.5

Spread

line +1.5 · -110 · stake $100

Conf64%
away

Green Bay Packers

0-0

home

Minnesota Vikings

0-0

Pick
ReviewedPick and confidence unchangedAug 14, 6:48 AM EDT

Minnesota named Kyler Murray its starter on August 11, while Green Bay lists Jordan Love first. Micah Parsons' projected Week 1 absence moves value toward the home underdog.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
64%
Expected value
+22.18%
Kelly stake (¼)
$61
Risk:medium risk

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDTCBS/FOX

Lincoln Financial Field

Scheduled

Washington Commanders +4.5

Spread

line +4.5 · -110 · stake $100

Conf52%
away

Washington Commanders

0-0

Pick
home

Philadelphia Eagles

0-0

InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

DraftKings via ESPN moved Philadelphia from -5.5 to the listed -4.5, a single-book signal rather than consensus. Laremy Tunsil's surgery is verified, but his Week 1 absence remains projected, making this a low-confidence take of the points.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
52%
Expected value
-0.73%
Kelly stake (¼)
$0
Risk:high risk
  • Low confidence pick
  • Small edge over market odds

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDTCBS/FOX

SoFi Stadium

Scheduled

Arizona Cardinals +10.5

Spread

line +10.5 · -110 · stake $100

Conf57%
away

Arizona Cardinals

0-0

Pick
home

Los Angeles Chargers

0-0

InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

DraftKings via ESPN moved the Chargers from -11.5 to the listed -10.5, while Arizona confirmed Jacoby Brissett as starter. Rashawn Slater expects to play Week 1, so the value rests on the double-digit cushion rather than a projected absence.

Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
57%
Expected value
+8.82%
Kelly stake (¼)
$24
Risk:medium risk
  • Small edge over market odds

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Sunday Night Football

1 game

Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM EDTNBC

MetLife Stadium

Scheduled

Dallas Cowboys -2.5

Spread

line -2.5 · -115 · stake $100

Conf63%
away

Dallas Cowboys

0-0

Pick
home

New York Giants

0-0

InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

Dallas' spread held while its DraftKings moneyline shortened from -130 to -148, and Dallas lists Dak Prescott first. The Giants have not released their Week 1 chart and their QB1 remains unsettled.

Implied probability
53.5%
Our probability
63%
Expected value
+17.78%
Kelly stake (¼)
$51
Risk:medium risk

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Monday Night Football

1 game

Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM EDTESPN

Arrowhead Stadium

Scheduled

Denver Broncos +3

Spread

line +3 · -115 · stake $100

Conf59%
away

Denver Broncos

0-0

Pick
home

Kansas City Chiefs

0-0

InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable

DraftKings via ESPN moved Kansas City from -2.5 to the listed -3, creating key-number value on Denver. Bo Nix and Sean Payton return after a 14-win 2025 baseline, while Michael Deiter's camp exit lacks a Week 1 timetable.

Implied probability
53.5%
Our probability
59%
Expected value
+10.30%
Kelly stake (¼)
$30
Risk:medium risk

Strong value bet — edge over the market price.

Parlay tickets

3 tickets

Safe

Open

2 legs · +264 · stake $100 to win $264.46

  • Minnesota Vikings +1.5Packers @ Vikings · Sun 4:25 PM ETSpread · -110OPEN
  • Cincinnati Bengals -3.5Buccaneers @ Bengals · Sun 1:00 PM ETSpread · -110OPEN

0/2 legs settled · profit —

Published Aug 13 · not emailed

Value

Open

3 legs · +581 · stake $50 to win $290.69

  • Dallas Cowboys -2.5Cowboys @ Giants · Sun 8:20 PM ETSpread · -115OPEN
  • Pittsburgh Steelers -3Falcons @ Steelers · Sun 1:00 PM ETSpread · -110OPEN
  • Detroit Lions -7Saints @ Lions · Sun 1:00 PM ETSpread · -110OPEN

0/3 legs settled · profit —

Published Aug 13 · not emailed

Longshot

Open

5 legs · +2436 · stake $25 to win $608.98

  • Las Vegas Raiders -3.5Dolphins @ Raiders · Sun 4:25 PM ETSpread · -110OPEN
  • Under 40.5Browns @ Jaguars · Sun 1:00 PM ETTotal · -110OPEN
  • Buffalo Bills -1.5Bills @ Texans · Sun 1:00 PM ETSpread · -110OPEN
  • Chicago Bears -2.5Bears @ Panthers · Sun 1:00 PM ETSpread · -110OPEN
  • Arizona Cardinals +10.5Cardinals @ Chargers · Sun 4:25 PM ETSpread · -110OPEN

0/5 legs settled · profit —

Published Aug 13 · not emailed

Parlay ledger (published tickets · settled only)

Parlay record, risked, profit and ROI for the selected week and the season
ScopeW-L-PRiskedProfitROI
Week 1— no settled tickets (3 open)
Season— no settled tickets (3 open)

Safe, Value and Longshot are labels relative to each other, nothing more. Every parlay is a high-risk bet: all legs must win (a pushed leg drops out). Open tickets count as neither losses nor settled risk. Tickets draw only from the week's Sunday slate — midweek, Thursday and Monday games never qualify, whatever their confidence.

Week 1 record

ROI 0%

0-0 · 0% win rate · profit +$0

Week 1 record by bet type
Bet typeRecordWin %Profit
Moneyline0-00%+$0
Spread0-00%+$0

Accuracy by confidence (season)

85%+ confidence
0-00%
70–84%
0-00%
Below 70%
0-00%

Weekly breakdown

Record, win rate, profit and ROI by week
WeekRecordWin %ProfitROI
0-00%+$00%

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