100% AI-generated predictions · every pick graded in public · preseason games not included
Season TBD (0-0) +$0 · W1 TBD
Current · Week 1
Midweek Games
1 game
Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM EDTNBC
Lumen Field
Scheduled
Seattle Seahawks -3.5
Spread
line -3.5 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
61%
away
New England Patriots
0-0
home
Seattle Seahawks
0-0
Pick
ReviewedPick and confidence unchangedAug 14, 6:48 AM EDT
Seattle lists Sam Darnold first and returns all five offensive-line starters, while New England lists Drake Maye first and travels cross-country for a Wednesday opener. Zach Charbonnet remains on PUP, limiting confidence in the home favorite.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
61%
Expected value
+16.45%
Kelly stake (¼)
$45
Risk:medium risk
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Thursday Night Football
1 game
Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM EDTPrime Video
SoFi Stadium
Scheduled
San Francisco 49ers +3.5
Spread
line +3.5 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
55%
away
San Francisco 49ers
0-0
Pick
home
Los Angeles Rams
0-0
ReviewedPick and confidence unchangedAug 14, 6:48 AM EDT
Official schedules place this game in Melbourne, removing a normal Rams home advantage. San Francisco's camp injuries and Myles Garrett's knee swelling make taking the hook only a weak lean.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
55%
Expected value
+5.00%
Kelly stake (¼)
$14
Risk:medium risk
Small edge over market odds
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Sunday Early Afternoon
8 games
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX
Paycor Stadium
Scheduled
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
Spread
line -3.5 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
63%
away
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0-0
home
Cincinnati Bengals
0-0
Pick
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
Cincinnati lists Joe Burrow first, while Tampa Bay's initial chart had Tristan Wirfs and Vita Vea not practicing. Those absences are not Week 1 designations, but Cincinnati's quarterback and home-field edges justify laying the hook.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
63%
Expected value
+20.27%
Kelly stake (¼)
$56
Risk:medium risk
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX
Ford Field
Scheduled
Detroit Lions -7
Spread
line -7 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
60%
away
New Orleans Saints
0-0
home
Detroit Lions
0-0
Pick
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
Jared Goff provides Detroit a quarterback edge, but Tyler Shough returns after starting nine games for New Orleans in 2025. Detroit is installing a new offense and center Michael Mays will miss significant time, so laying seven carries risk.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
60%
Expected value
+14.55%
Kelly stake (¼)
$40
Risk:medium risk
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX
Nissan Stadium
Scheduled
New York Jets +3
Spread
line +3 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
54%
away
New York Jets
0-0
Pick
home
Tennessee Titans
0-0
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
The Jets list veteran Geno Smith first, while Tennessee lists second-year Cam Ward first under new coach Robert Saleh. Both teams have new systems and active camp injuries, making the full field goal the safer value.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
54%
Expected value
+3.09%
Kelly stake (¼)
$9
Risk:high risk
Low confidence pick
Small edge over market odds
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX
Lucas Oil Stadium
Scheduled
Indianapolis Colts +3.5
Spread
line +3.5 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
53%
away
Baltimore Ravens
0-0
home
Indianapolis Colts
0-0
Pick
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
Baltimore changed its head coach and both coordinators, while Nate Wiggins' knee severity remained unknown on August 11. Indianapolis has its own receiver and quarterback health concerns, so this is a low-confidence play on the hook.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
53%
Expected value
+1.18%
Kelly stake (¼)
$3
Risk:high risk
Low confidence pick
Small edge over market odds
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX
Acrisure Stadium
Scheduled
Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Spread
line -3 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
62%
away
Atlanta Falcons
0-0
home
Pittsburgh Steelers
0-0
Pick
ReviewedPick and confidence unchangedAug 14, 6:48 AM EDT
Pittsburgh lists Aaron Rodgers first, while Michael Penix Jr. had not been cleared for Atlanta's 11-on-11 work. Atlanta also lost Jalon Walker for the season, making Pittsburgh preferable at the key number.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
62%
Expected value
+18.36%
Kelly stake (¼)
$50
Risk:medium risk
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX
Bank of America Stadium
Scheduled
Chicago Bears -2.5
Spread
line -2.5 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
57%
away
Chicago Bears
0-0
Pick
home
Carolina Panthers
0-0
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
Chicago lists Caleb Williams first and retains Ben Johnson, while Carolina lists Bryce Young first under Dave Canales. Coby Bryant's long-term absence and Chicago's travel keep the edge modest.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
57%
Expected value
+8.82%
Kelly stake (¼)
$24
Risk:medium risk
Small edge over market odds
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX
EverBank Stadium
Scheduled
Under 40.5
Total
o/u 40.5 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
59%
away
Cleveland Browns
0-0
home
Jacksonville Jaguars
0-0
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
Cleveland has not resolved its Watson-Sanders quarterback competition, while Jacksonville has several offensive-line availability concerns. Trevor Lawrence gives Jacksonville more stability, but the combined offensive uncertainty favors the listed under.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
59%
Expected value
+12.64%
Kelly stake (¼)
$35
Risk:medium risk
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM EDTCBS/FOX
NRG Stadium
Scheduled
Buffalo Bills -1.5
Spread
line -1.5 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
59%
away
Buffalo Bills
0-0
Pick
home
Houston Texans
0-0
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
Buffalo's August 11 camp work had Josh Allen with the first team, while Houston lists C.J. Stroud first and has returned Tank Dell to team drills. Allen at less than a field goal remains the narrowest side despite Houston's defensive strength.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
59%
Expected value
+12.64%
Kelly stake (¼)
$35
Risk:medium risk
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Sunday Late Afternoon
4 games
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDTCBS/FOX
Allegiant Stadium
Scheduled
Las Vegas Raiders -3.5
Spread
line -3.5 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
60%
away
Miami Dolphins
0-0
home
Las Vegas Raiders
0-0
Pick
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
Las Vegas lists Kirk Cousins first under Klint Kubiak. Miami's chart lists Quinn Ewers while Malik Willis led its August 10 passing work, leaving the Dolphins' regular-season quarterback order unresolved.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
60%
Expected value
+14.55%
Kelly stake (¼)
$40
Risk:medium risk
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDTCBS/FOX
U.S. Bank Stadium
Scheduled
Minnesota Vikings +1.5
Spread
line +1.5 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
64%
away
Green Bay Packers
0-0
home
Minnesota Vikings
0-0
Pick
ReviewedPick and confidence unchangedAug 14, 6:48 AM EDT
Minnesota named Kyler Murray its starter on August 11, while Green Bay lists Jordan Love first. Micah Parsons' projected Week 1 absence moves value toward the home underdog.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
64%
Expected value
+22.18%
Kelly stake (¼)
$61
Risk:medium risk
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDTCBS/FOX
Lincoln Financial Field
Scheduled
Washington Commanders +4.5
Spread
line +4.5 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
52%
away
Washington Commanders
0-0
Pick
home
Philadelphia Eagles
0-0
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
DraftKings via ESPN moved Philadelphia from -5.5 to the listed -4.5, a single-book signal rather than consensus. Laremy Tunsil's surgery is verified, but his Week 1 absence remains projected, making this a low-confidence take of the points.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
52%
Expected value
-0.73%
Kelly stake (¼)
$0
Risk:high risk
Low confidence pick
Small edge over market odds
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM EDTCBS/FOX
SoFi Stadium
Scheduled
Arizona Cardinals +10.5
Spread
line +10.5 · -110 · stake $100
Conf
57%
away
Arizona Cardinals
0-0
Pick
home
Los Angeles Chargers
0-0
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
DraftKings via ESPN moved the Chargers from -11.5 to the listed -10.5, while Arizona confirmed Jacoby Brissett as starter. Rashawn Slater expects to play Week 1, so the value rests on the double-digit cushion rather than a projected absence.
Implied probability
52.4%
Our probability
57%
Expected value
+8.82%
Kelly stake (¼)
$24
Risk:medium risk
Small edge over market odds
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Sunday Night Football
1 game
Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM EDTNBC
MetLife Stadium
Scheduled
Dallas Cowboys -2.5
Spread
line -2.5 · -115 · stake $100
Conf
63%
away
Dallas Cowboys
0-0
Pick
home
New York Giants
0-0
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
Dallas' spread held while its DraftKings moneyline shortened from -130 to -148, and Dallas lists Dak Prescott first. The Giants have not released their Week 1 chart and their QB1 remains unsettled.
Implied probability
53.5%
Our probability
63%
Expected value
+17.78%
Kelly stake (¼)
$51
Risk:medium risk
Strong value bet — edge over the market price.
Monday Night Football
1 game
Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM EDTESPN
Arrowhead Stadium
Scheduled
Denver Broncos +3
Spread
line +3 · -115 · stake $100
Conf
59%
away
Denver Broncos
0-0
Pick
home
Kansas City Chiefs
0-0
InitialInitial call · original review time unavailableReview time unavailable
DraftKings via ESPN moved Kansas City from -2.5 to the listed -3, creating key-number value on Denver. Bo Nix and Sean Payton return after a 14-win 2025 baseline, while Michael Deiter's camp exit lacks a Week 1 timetable.
Parlay record, risked, profit and ROI for the selected week and the season
Scope
W-L-P
Risked
Profit
ROI
Week 1
— no settled tickets (3 open)
Season
— no settled tickets (3 open)
Safe, Value and Longshot are labels relative to each other, nothing more. Every parlay is a high-risk bet: all legs must win (a pushed leg drops out). Open tickets count as neither losses nor settled risk. Tickets draw only from the week's Sunday slate — midweek, Thursday and Monday games never qualify, whatever their confidence.
Week 1 record
ROI 0%
0-0 · 0% win rate · profit +$0
Week 1 record by bet type
Bet type
Record
Win %
Profit
Moneyline
0-0
0%
+$0
Spread
0-0
0%
+$0
Accuracy by confidence (season)
85%+ confidence
0-00%
70–84%
0-00%
Below 70%
0-00%
Weekly breakdown
Record, win rate, profit and ROI by week
Week
Record
Win %
Profit
ROI
0-0
0%
+$0
0%
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Picks land Wednesday morning, parlays Friday, graded results after the games. The same numbers you see here — nothing extra, nothing dropped.